A recent episode of TechCrunch’s podcast features a deep dive with Uncork Capital, a Silicon Valley venture firm with 21 years of experience weathering boom-and-bust cycles in the startup world. The conversation, led by TechCrunch host Alex Wilhelm, centers on Uncork’s journey through market shifts—from the dot-com crash of the early 2000s to the 2022 tech slowdown—and its insights into why the current venture landscape stands apart from previous eras. For founders, investors, and anyone tracking the future of tech, the discussion offers a rare long-term perspective on what endures (and what changes) in the volatile world of venture capital.
Uncork’s History: Building Through Cycles
Founded in 2004 by Jeff Clavier, Uncork Capital (formerly known as SoftTech VC) has built a reputation for backing early-stage startups that fly under the radar—including success stories like Fitbit, Postmates, and Zapier—while avoiding the hype that often leads firms to overinvest during bubbles. Clavier, who stepped into a chairman role in 2023 but remains active in the firm, explains that Uncork’s longevity stems from a deliberate focus on “founder-first” investing and a refusal to chase short-term trends.
“We started right after the dot-com bust, when venture capital was still reeling,” Clavier says in the podcast. “That taught us to be disciplined: we never invested in a startup just because it was ‘hot.’ We focused on founders solving real problems, even if their idea wasn’t getting headlines. That approach got us through 2008, 2020, and 2022—and it’s why we’re still here.”
Uncork’s portfolio reflects this philosophy. Unlike firms that pile into trendy sectors (e.g., metaverse startups in 2021 or AI “copycats” in 2023), Uncork has consistently backed startups in underappreciated but resilient areas: B2B SaaS tools for small businesses, consumer health tech, and infrastructure for remote work. As current Uncork Managing Partner Amy Errett notes, this focus has paid off: the firm’s returns have outpaced industry averages during both booms and busts.
What Makes the Current Cycle Different
While every venture cycle has its own quirks, Uncork’s team identifies three key factors that set the 2023–2025 period apart from previous downturns and recoveries:
1. The “Profitability Mandate” Is Here to Stay
In past cycles—like the post-2008 recovery or the 2015 “unicorn boom”—investors often overlooked unprofitable startups in favor of rapid user growth. But the 2022 slowdown, triggered by rising interest rates and a pullback in tech spending, shifted the narrative permanently. Errett explains that today’s investors demand clear paths to profitability, not just “hockey-stick” growth curves.
“Five years ago, a founder could pitch a ‘land-and-expand’ model with no timeline for profitability and get funded,” Errett says. “Now, we ask for unit economics in the first meeting. Founders who can show they’re building a sustainable business—even if growth is slower—have a huge advantage. This isn’t a temporary shift; it’s a fundamental reset. Investors learned their lesson in 2022, and they’re not going back.”
Uncork’s recent investments reflect this: the firm has backed startups like LeanLab (a SaaS tool for small-business accounting) and Wellify (a consumer health app with a subscription model)—both of which turned profitable within 18 months of launch.
2. AI Isn’t Just a Trend—It’s an Infrastructure Shift
While past cycles have been driven by fleeting fads (e.g., Groupon-style “daily deal” startups in 2010 or blockchain “memecoins” in 2021), Uncork views AI as a foundational shift comparable to the rise of cloud computing in the 2000s. Clavier emphasizes that unlike trends that fade, AI is transforming how startups operate—from automating backend tasks to creating new product categories.
“The difference with AI is that it’s not a ‘vertical’—it’s a tool that every startup can use,” Clavier says. “We’re not investing in ‘AI startups’; we’re investing in founders who use AI to solve problems better than anyone else. For example, we backed a logistics startup that uses AI to optimize delivery routes—their tech isn’t the ‘product,’ but it’s what makes their product 10x better. That’s the kind of AI adoption that lasts.”
This pragmatic view of AI has helped Uncork avoid the “AI hype cycle” that led some firms to overinvest in unproven foundation models. Instead, the firm focuses on startups that integrate AI into existing workflows, where the value is immediately measurable.
3. Globalization of Early-Stage Investing
In previous cycles, venture capital was largely concentrated in Silicon Valley, with a handful of secondary hubs (e.g., New York, Boston). Today, Uncork says, early-stage innovation is truly global—with startups in regions like Southeast Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East attracting significant capital. This shift, driven by remote work and cheaper cloud infrastructure, has changed how firms source and evaluate deals.
“We used to only invest in startups within a 10-mile radius of our office,” Errett admits. “Now, half of our recent investments are in founders based outside the U.S.—from a fintech startup in Nigeria to a climate tech firm in Brazil. Remote work made this possible: we can meet with founders virtually, and they can build global teams without relocating to Silicon Valley. This globalization isn’t a trend; it’s a permanent expansion of the venture ecosystem.”
For founders in emerging markets, this means more access to capital than ever before. For firms like Uncork, it means a larger pool of talent—but also the need to understand local markets, regulations, and user behaviors.
Advice for Founders in the Current Cycle
Drawing on 21 years of experience, Uncork’s team offers three actionable tips for founders navigating today’s venture landscape:
- Prioritize “default alive” over “default scale”: Build a business that can survive (and even profit) with minimal external funding. “If your startup needs another round to stay afloat in 12 months, you’re vulnerable,” Errett says. “Focus on revenue first—scale can come later.”
- Be transparent with investors: In past cycles, founders often downplayed risks to secure funding. Today, honesty about challenges (e.g., slower customer acquisition, regulatory hurdles) builds trust. “Investors have been through enough cycles to spot a lie,” Clavier adds. “Tell us the bad news early—we’ll help you solve it.”
- Ignore the noise: With AI hype, global competition, and constant market updates, it’s easy to lose focus. “Stay obsessed with your customer, not the headlines,” Errett advises. “The startups that win are the ones that keep building, even when everyone else is panicking or partying.”
Looking Ahead: What’s Next for Venture
As the podcast wraps up, Uncork’s team expresses cautious optimism about the future. While they don’t predict a return to the “easy money” of 2020–2021, they believe the current focus on profitability and problem-solving will lead to stronger, more resilient startups.
“Venture capital is cyclical, but the best founders and firms adapt,” Clavier says. “We’ve learned that the cycles change, but the fundamentals don’t: great founders solve real problems, and great investors back them for the long haul. This cycle is different—but that’s what makes it exciting.”
For listeners, the conversation is a reminder that in venture capital, longevity isn’t about timing the market—it’s about building a strategy that works through the market. And for Uncork Capital, 21 years of cycles have only reinforced that lesson.